Can Metals Markets Sustain the Energy Transition?

Join this online debate as experts examine whether metals markets can meet rising demand amid growing supply constraints, with a particular focus on copper.

The energy transition, alongside digital transformation and economic development, will continue to drive a surge in mineral demand. The question that arises is whether metals markets can continue to meet rising demand as it rises while supply constraints intensify, raising questions about the ability of metals markets to meet growing demand over the coming years. Starting from basic concepts in mineral economics (including depletion, sustainability, resources and reserves), the debate explores these dynamics and how short-term developments reflect this tension, with a particular focus on the copper market.

Against this background, four factors are particularly relevant to the sustainability of metals markets: demand growth that does not persistently exceed the potential for production expansion; sufficient price sensitivity of demand; technological progress that enables supply to increase; and prices that adequately signal resource scarcity. These factors are closely interconnected, as demand, supply and prices evolve jointly, reflecting both economic and technological developments and the availability of resources.

With a particular focus on copper, the debate examines how these factors help explain recent market developments and price dynamics. The copper market provides a relevant case study, given the growing demand associated with electricity grids, renewable energy, electric vehicles and digital infrastructure, alongside increasing extraction and refining costs and constraints on production. Recent supply disruptions, declining copper ore concentrations, national strategies and the approaches of major industrial and metal companies will also be considered.

Drawing on econometric modelling of copper prices developed over the past four years, the discussants will discuss how these short- and medium-term developments relate to the longer-term sustainability of metals markets.

Programme:

Moderator

Marzia Sesini, Florence School of Regulation

Discussants

·      Mayottine Peyret, Université Paris Dauphine

·      Ricardo Raineri Bernain, Former Chilean Minister of Energy

·      Hervé Champenois, Enedis

·      Kolja Pörtner, EKK Eagle Industry

·      Frédéric Gonand, UIMM (French industry employers' organisation)