Between two crucial winters: the outlook for gas markets in Europe

With the global energy crisis and even more since Russia’s unlawful invasion of Ukraine, EU gas markets underwent an unprecedented period of extreme price volatility leading to record-breaking price peaks. Additionally, the gradually reduced flow of gas from Russia (going from approximately 40% of total EU gas consumption in 2020 to less than 9% at present) posed urgent questions regarding security of supply. Considering the large dependence of Europe on Russian gas imports and the overall tight gas market at global level, unable to provide a real replacement for Russian gas supply, the risk of energy shortages during the winter ahead was a real, tangible, dramatic one. 

Europe responded to this dramatic threat with a number of initiatives addressing the emergency, while at the same time taking into account a medium-long term scenario. Diversification strategies, a revised regulation for gas storage, increased targets for biomethane and renewable hydrogen and a number of other EU regulatory and practical initiatives were undertaken as to tackle and mitigate the potentially detrimental effects of the energy crisis.  

According to the recent IEA Energy Outlook “there remain huge uncertainties over how this energy crisis will evolve and for how long fossil fuel prices will remain elevated, and the risks of further energy disruption and geopolitical fragmentation are high”. Also, the role of investments has been and will remain crucial: “The world has not been investing enough in energy in recent years […]. A smooth and secure energy transition will require a major uptick in clean energy investment flows”.  

Speaking at a press conference about the outlook on EU gas supply in 2023, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen gave an overview of EU actions to address the energy crisis so far, as well as the planned strands of work in 2023. “Russia’s blackmail has failed” she reassured, and “we are safe for this winter”.  

With the emergency for this winter finally behind us, which lessons have we learnt? What is the energy outlook for Europe in the next months? Which instruments or activities should Europe prioritise as to secure a safe winter 2023/2024? 

Against this background, the Debate will explore the current outlook for European gas markets and will aim at identifying which are the priority actions and initiatives to be undertaken in the next months as to ensure security of supply to Europe. 

On the occasion of International Women’s Day, this debate aims at maximising the contributions of female speakers, with the scope of “shedding a light” on their knowledge as subject matter experts. 

Draft Programme

Introduction to the Debate and Opening Presentations

14.00 – 14.05   Introduction to the Debate

Ilaria Conti | Florence School of Regulation

14.05 – 14.15   The gas market demand and supply outlook

Sylvia Beyer | IEA

14.15 – 14.30  The EU policy perspective

Monika Zsigri | EU Commission‘s DG ENER

Panel Discussion: Introductory Remarks, Polls and Comments

Moderator: Alberto Pototschnig | Florence School of Regulation

14.30 – 14.50   Introductory remarks from the panellists

Boyana Achovski | GIE

Annegret Groebel | CEER

Eva Hennig | Eurogas

14.50 – 14.55   Polls

14.55 – 15.20   Comments on the polls outcome and Q&A from the audience
Panellists

15.20 – 15.30   Concluding remarks
Ilaria Conti | Florence School of Regulation
Alberto Pototschnig | Florence School of Regulation