Policy Brief
Five reflections on clean hydrogen’s contribution to European industrial decarbonisation from 2024 to 2030
22 February 2024
BY: CORNILLIE Jan, James Kneebone, Ilaria Conti, Jos Delbeke
After years of record announcements, frantic policy development and the establishment of substantial public support mechanisms, the clean hydrogen sector is nearing an inflexion point. Many clean hydrogen projects have reached the technical feasibility stage, with a global pipeline of clean hydrogen projects totalling nearly 25 million tonnes (Mt) of production by 2030, much of which is in Europe. However, only 4% of those projects reached financial investment decision (FID) in 2023. This rate is already twice as high as in 2022, but still very marginal given global hydrogen demand needs to grow from 95Mt to 150Mt by 2030 to stay on track for net-zero by 2050. The key question for the coming months is: how can a critical mass of the remaining clean hydrogen projects secure financing before momentum is lost? As it stands, production project financing in Europe is likely to come through either a bilateral deal with an off-taker willing to pay a premium for a decarbonised product or via selection in one of the European auctions or wider public support mechanisms. If financing can be secured, we might see the beginning of new technological cycles rooted in clean hydrogen path dependencies within key industries. This in turn could establish the basis for the birth of a wider clean hydrogen market, driving economies of scale and ultimately facilitating deep decarbonisation of the European economy, stimulating some new manufacturing sectors in the process. However, if this first wave of projects fails to secure investment, confidence is likely to falter, and the momentum lost. Clean hydrogen has been positioned as a potential technological vehicle for industrial transformation and as a future pillar of European energy security. Record low costs of solar and wind technology have added to an expectation that a similar learning curve could materialise for electrolysers and other clean hydrogen technologies. Cheap clean hydrogen would take the energy transition where electrification finds it hard to go. However, high interest rates and a fall in gas prices after the 2022 summer peak have led to a cool-off in expectations for fast, large-scale deployment. In this Policy Brief, we give a snapshot of the state of play for the sector, complemented by learnings from the High-Level Policy Dialogue (HLPD) hosted by the EUI’s Florence School of Transnational Governance and the Florence School of Regulation on October 19, 2023.
logo cadmus Read it on Cadmus Download in open access

LATEST FSR PUBLICATIONS

Other
Aviation is crucial for Europe's mobility, connectivity and competitiveness. With over 900 million air passengers travelling to, from and within the European Union each year, Europe makes up a third [...]
Technical Report
Lack of interoperability is increasingly becoming a significant issue in the electricity sector. The need to integrate a growing amount of distributed resources, such as renewable energy sources and electric [...]
Technical report
The energy transition calls for a rapid expansion of electricity grids at both transmission and distribution levels. Technological progress and digitalisation offer new solutions to system needs that can increase [...]
Technical report
The interaction of “Contracts”, “Markets” and “Law and Regulation” have informed the economic analysis of market economies for over 40 years. One of the main lessons learnt is that (contracts), [...]
Other
Rail transport and inland waterways are crucial to achieve the objectives outlined in the Green Deal agenda. These aims include a 55% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030 and attaining [...]
Article
Urban mobility plays a key role for the promotion of the socio-economic development of a country. Particularly, MaaS platforms are important for those daily journeys made by travellers that must [...]

Join our community

To meet, discuss and learn in the channel that suits you best.

scroll

top