Transmission Network Investment as an Anticipation Problem

This paper proposes a probabilistic model to evaluate if a proactive TSO that anticipates the
connection of new generators with short construction duration compared to the time needed to
reinforce the network is more efficient than a reactive TSO that does not make any anticipation but
that may then face higher congestion while the network is being reinforced. This evaluation is made in
presence of anticipation costs both related to the study of the project of network investment and to the
administrative procedures needed to obtain the building agreement. Our results in terms of social costs
clearly show a limit of probability for the connection of generators beyond which a proactive TSO is
more efficient than a reactive TSO. Evaluated on realistic cases of connection, this limit of probability
is found quite low, which indicates that the proactive behaviour for a TSO shall generally be the
optimal one.