Climate | Technical Report
What to expect from sectoral trading : a U.S.-China example
15 March 2016

Authors: GAVARD, Claire; WINCHESTER, Niven; JACOBY, Henry D.; PALTSEV, Sergey

In recent United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations, sectoral mechanisms were proposed as a way to encourage early action and spur investment in low carbon technologies in developing countries, particularly in the electricity sector. Sectoral trading, which is one such proposition, involves including a sector from one or more nations in an international cap-and-trade system. In order to assess potential impacts from such a mechanism, we analyze trade in carbon permits between the Chinese electricity sector and a U.S. economy-wide cap-and-trade program using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We find that this sectoral policy induces significant financial transfers between the two countries. In 2030, the U.S. purchases permits valued at $42 billion from China, which represents more than 46% of its capped emissions. Despite these transfers, there is only a small change in Chinese welfare. In the U.S., the availability of relatively cheap emissions permits significantly reduces the cost of climate policy. In China, sectoral trading increases the price of electricity and reduces the amount of electricity generated, particularly from coal, while opposite effects are observed in the U.S. Despite increases in the price of electricity in China, only small increases in electricity generation from nuclear and renewables are projected in the timeframe of our analysis (2010- 2030). Because the price of coal decree ses, we also find that sectoral trading leads to emissions increases in non-electricity sectors in China, a form of internal carbon leakage.
logo cadmus Read it on Cadmus

LATEST FSR PUBLICATIONS

Article
The International Court of Justice (ICJ)’s Advisory Opinion on Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change, delivered on July 23, 2025, 1 marks a pivotal moment in international climate [...]
Working Paper
The electricity market design reform repositioned capacity markets: they are no longer regarded as last-resort, temporary measures. In practice, their perimeter is also expected to expand, with at least seven [...]
Article
This article provides an overview of the most relevant cases decided by the Court of Justice of the European Union concerning contract law. The present issue covers the period between [...]

Join our community

To meet, discuss and learn in the channel that suits you best.

scroll

top