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Working paper / Climate

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Installation Entries and Exits in the EU ETS Industrial Sector

Author(s): GRAF Christoph, JONG Thijs, MARCANTONINI Claudio, VERDE Stefano

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Focusing on the industrial sector of the EU ETS, this study identifies and analyses the entries and the exits of installations into and from the system over the period 2005-2013. The overall number of exits was notable relative to the number of installations, and significantly greater than that of the entries. Further, we estimate a hazard model for the risk of an installation exiting the EU ETS, which identifies a number of different factors referring to the installation, the firm, and the economy, explaining the occurrence of this event. In addition to these, an “end-of-phase effect” is found, whereby the chances of exit were significantly higher in the final years of the EU ETS Phases I and II. This effect, related to the rules concerning the closure of an installation and the withdrawal of the relative allowances, is detrimental to the allocative efficiency of the system and, therefore, to its cost-effectiveness in emissions abatement. The evidence provided by the study and some of its methodological aspects may be useful for future attempts to identify investment leakage in the EU ETS.